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Market Overview: What Does the US Export to Mexico?

Written by Troy Patterson | May 16, 2024 2:14:13 AM

In recent years, Mexico has consistently ranked as one of the top trading partners of the United States, with a significant portion of U.S. exports destined for Mexican markets.

In 2022, the total trade value between the two countries reached a staggering $779.3 billion. This trade relationship has facilitated the exchange of goods and fostered economic growth and integration between the neighboring countries. 

Today, Mexico remains the largest provider of goods to the United States and the second-largest export market for US products.

A Closer Look at US Exports to Mexico

As of 2023, US exports to Mexico stood at an impressive $243 billion, making Mexico the United States’ second-largest export destination out of 220 global partners. This robust exchange includes everything from machinery and vehicles to agricultural goods, electronics, and services—reflecting the breadth and depth of this critical economic partnership.

While the US maintains a strong presence in the Mexican market, the competitive landscape is dynamic. Trade data reveals that, outside of unique cases like Guam, most regional partners import more from the US than from Mexico. This underscores the strength of American products and services in the region.

This ongoing trade not only bolsters the economies of both nations but also supports millions of jobs and further cements the vital economic ties across North America.

The Annual Growth Rate of US-Mexico Trade

One statistic that stands out is the steady increase in trade volume between the two countries. Over the past five years, the value of trade exchanged with Mexico has grown at an average annual rate of about 6.2%. This sustained growth highlights the deepening economic ties and the ongoing demand for American and Mexican goods on both sides of the border.

Recent Monthly Trade Figures Between Mexico and the United States

Looking at the latest data from November 2024, trade between Mexico and the United States continues to reflect a dynamic partnership. During this month, Mexico shipped $35 billion worth of goods to the US, while purchasing $18.1 billion in American products. This resulted in a positive trade balance for Mexico, highlighting the ongoing strength of cross-border commerce.

It’s worth noting that exports from Mexico saw a 3.5% increase compared to the previous November, while imports from the US remained steady. These figures underscore not only the resilience of the commercial relationship but also the consistent demand for American goods within Mexican markets.

Recent Trade Balance Snapshot

Take November 2024, for example: during that month, Mexico shipped out $35 billion worth of goods to the U.S. while importing $18.1 billion in return. This led to Mexico enjoying a trade surplus of $16.9 billion with its northern neighbor—a snapshot that highlights just how robust and interconnected the economic relationship between the two countries has become.

Understanding the Importance of Exports to Mexico for the US Economy

The trade relationship between the two nations stands as one of the most significant and dynamic in the world, fostering economic growth and collaboration between the two nations.

Here is the list of reasons:

  1. The trade volume is substantial, with billions of dollars exchanged in goods and services annually as of 2021.

  2. Exporting goods and services supports millions of American jobs across manufacturing, agriculture, technology, and services. These jobs contribute to the overall economic growth and stability of the U.S. economy.

  3. It provides American businesses access to a vast consumer market of over 120 million people, facilitating the expansion of customer bases and revenue streams.

  4. The proximity makes it a cost-effective and efficient trading partner. Many U.S. companies use Mexico as a manufacturing base due to lower labor costs and favorable trade agreements such as NAFTA or its successor, USMCA.

  5. Mexico is deeply integrated into the supply chains of many U.S. industries. Components and parts produced in Mexico are often used in the manufacturing processes of American companies, enhancing efficiency and reducing production costs, especially in trade with Mexico for agricultural products.

As trade evolves and expands, leveraging the U.S.-Mexico partnership's close ties and strategic advantages will remain crucial for fostering prosperity and innovation across North America.

Comparing Economic Complexity: Mexico vs. United States

When it comes to economic complexity—a measure of how diverse and sophisticated a country's production and export capabilities are—both Mexico and the United States hold strong positions globally, but there are some notable differences.

The United States boasts a notably high economic complexity score, ranking among the top ten countries worldwide. This high ranking reflects the nation’s ability to produce and export a vast array of advanced goods and services, ranging from pharmaceuticals in New Jersey to cutting-edge aerospace equipment in California. The U.S. economy, with a GDP per capita exceeding $80,000, not only leads in size, but also in its ability to generate and support high-value industries thanks to its innovative workforce and strong research institutions.

Mexico, in comparison, also demonstrates a solid degree of economic complexity, holding a spot within the top quarter of global rankings. Mexico’s production base is both diverse and integrated, especially considering its strong manufacturing sector—which includes automobiles, electronics, and aerospace components. Its GDP per capita, while lower than that of the U.S., still positions Mexico as an upper-middle income economy with growing potential and substantial ties to global value chains.

In summary, while the United States leads with a higher economic complexity and per capita income, Mexico continues to build on its manufacturing strengths and deepen its integration with international markets—especially those of its northern neighbor. These complementary strengths form the foundation for prosperous and robust bilateral trade.

Current State of Mexico's Trade Relationships and Agreements

Mexico holds a robust position in global trade, underpinned by numerous strategic trade agreements that foster economic growth and international cooperation. Its trade relationships extend across multiple continents, with partnerships designed to strengthen exports, increase foreign investment, and promote regional economic integration.

How Have Mexico’s Exports to the United States Changed Over the Past Year?

Over the past year, Mexico’s export activity with the United States has shown a steady upward trend. In November 2024, Mexican exports to the U.S. reached $35 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase. Compared to the same month in 2023, exports rose by nearly $1.2 billion, or about 3.5%. On the other hand, imports from the United States to Mexico remained relatively stable, seeing only a modest uptick.

This positive trajectory in exports led to a notable trade surplus for Mexico with the U.S., illustrating the enduring strength and growth of their economic partnership.

United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)

Mexico’s most significant trade relationship is with the United States and Canada through the USMCA, formerly known as NAFTA. This agreement bolsters trade and investment flows across North America, especially in sectors like automotive, agriculture, and manufacturing.

European Union-Mexico Free Trade Agreement (EU-Mexico FTA)

Mexico and the EU maintain a Free Trade Agreement, providing preferential access for Mexican exports to the European market. This relationship has encouraged the growth of Mexico’s exports in industries like automotive, electronics, and agri-foods.

Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

As a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, Mexico has expanded its trade reach to countries across the Asia-Pacific. This agreement facilitates access to markets such as Japan, Australia, and Vietnam, promoting Mexico’s competitiveness in electronics, machinery, and agri-food sectors.

Pacific Alliance

Through the Pacific Alliance, Mexico partners with Colombia, Chile, and Peru, forming a trade bloc aimed at fostering economic integration in Latin America. This alliance promotes free trade, innovation, and investment within the region.

Other Free Trade Agreements

Mexico has established FTAs with numerous countries, including Israel, Japan, and several Central and South American nations. These agreements diversify Mexico’s trade markets, reducing dependence on any single partner and enhancing export opportunities.

With over 50 trade agreements in place, Mexico’s current trade landscape is one of diversity and opportunity. These agreements not only enhance Mexico’s access to global markets but also attract foreign investment, fostering economic growth and strengthening the country’s position in the global economy.

Top Mexican Exports to the United States

Mexico is a powerhouse when it comes to supplying goods to its northern neighbor, with a strong focus on the automotive and tech sectors. The leading products exported from Mexico to the U.S. include:

  • Cars: Representing a major share, passenger vehicles drive significant trade, with exports totaling nearly $45 billion in 2023 alone.
  • Automotive Parts and Accessories: Essential components for everything from sedans to SUVs, these exports reached over $35 billion, fueling North American vehicle manufacturing.
  • Delivery Trucks: Serving a crucial role for logistics and commerce, Mexico shipped delivery trucks valued at over $26 billion.
  • Computers and Electronics: Mexico’s role as a key hub in electronics continued, with billions in computers and related tech making their way to American businesses and households.

These top exports underscore Mexico’s pivotal position in North American supply chains, particularly in automotive and technology sectors, and highlight the depth of integration between the two economies.

Comparing Mexico’s Export Partners: Who Prefers Mexican Goods?

While the United States stands as Mexico’s largest export partner by a significant margin, very few countries import more from Mexico than from the U.S. In fact, instances of countries where Mexican exports outweigh their imports from the U.S. are exceedingly rare and often limited to small economies or territories with unique trade dynamics. For example, there may be isolated cases, such as Guam, where imports from Mexico slightly exceed those from the U.S., but these are exceptions rather than the rule.

Conversely, the vast majority of countries around the world import more from the United States than from Mexico. The U.S. enjoys robust trade relationships with nations across Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas, exporting everything from technology and vehicles to pharmaceuticals and agricultural products. This widespread reach underscores the scale and influence of the U.S. as a global trading partner.

These patterns highlight the strategic importance of maintaining strong and diversified trade relationships—both for Mexico as it continues to broaden its global export markets, and for the United States as it sustains its trading leadership worldwide.

What does the US Export to Mexico?

The United States exports a wide range of goods and services, making it one of its top trading partners. 

Key Drivers of Mexico’s Imports from the United States

Several product categories have played a leading role in driving Mexico’s import growth from the U.S. in recent periods. Among these, motor vehicles and their components—including parts and accessories—stand out as major contributors, reflecting the deep integration of the automotive sector between the two nations.

Industrial equipment such as valves has also seen significant increases in export value, supporting Mexico’s expanding manufacturing and infrastructure needs. In addition, electric batteries have experienced notable growth, likely linked to both the rising demand for electric vehicles and advancements in technology sectors.

Collectively, these categories underscore the dynamic and evolving nature of U.S.-Mexico trade, particularly in automotive and technology-driven industries.

Sectors with Strongest Comparative Advantage

When examining the products that define the robust trade relationship between Mexico and the United States, several key industries stand out due to their sustained export strengths.

Mexico’s Comparative Advantage:
Mexico holds a clear edge in the automotive sector. Passenger vehicles, delivery trucks, and automotive parts represent the highest volume of exports to the United States. This dominance stems from Mexico's well-developed manufacturing infrastructure, competitive labor costs, and deep integration into North American supply chains. The export of assembled cars, as well as essential motor vehicle components and accessories, fuels both countries’ automotive industries and strengthens cross-border production networks.

United States’ Comparative Advantage:
Conversely, the United States demonstrates its comparative advantage in the energy sector, particularly refined petroleum products and petroleum gas. American refineries export substantial quantities of gasoline, diesel, and related fuels to Mexico, fulfilling a significant portion of Mexico’s domestic energy demand. Additionally, U.S.-manufactured auto parts flow south to support Mexico’s automotive assembly lines, ensuring a dynamic back-and-forth in the supply chain.

These focused areas—automotive products for Mexico, energy and refined fuels for the United States—exemplify the natural synergies that drive trade efficiency, economic growth, and mutual benefit between the two nations.

Here's an example of exports:

  • Automotive Exports: Vehicles, parts, and machinery make up a significant portion of exports.
  • Agricultural Goods: Grains, soybeans, meat, and processed foods support both U.S. and Mexican economies.
  • Electronics and Technology: Televisions, computers, smartphones, and other electronic devices drive technological integration.
  • Industrial Machinery: Construction equipment, agricultural machinery, and manufacturing machinery boost productivity.
  • Petroleum Products: Gasoline, diesel, and refined petroleum exports meet Mexico's energy needs.
  • Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals: Industrial chemicals, fertilizers, and medical supplies support diverse industries.
  • Medical Equipment and Devices: Surgical tools, diagnostics, and medical devices enhance Mexico's healthcare infrastructure.
  • Aerospace Components: Aircraft parts and equipment strengthen Mexico’s aerospace manufacturing.
  • Plastics and Rubber Products: Includes resins, containers, and tires for various industries.
  • Iron and Steel: Essential for Mexico's construction and manufacturing sectors.
  • Mineral Fuels: Natural gas and coal support energy production.
  • Textiles and Apparel: Fabrics, apparel, and accessories contribute to Mexico’s fashion and industrial sectors.
  • Optical and Precision Instruments: Instruments and tools for medical and industrial use.
  • Paper and Wood Products: Lumber, paperboard, and pulp supply Mexico's manufacturing.
  • Consumer Goods: Furniture, toys, games, and sporting goods serve Mexico’s consumer markets.

How Have Mexico’s Imports from the United States Evolved?

Over the past year, Mexico has seen a modest but steady increase in imports from the United States. From November of last year to November of this year, imports edged upward, reflecting both ongoing economic integration and shifting demand across key sectors.

Several product categories led this upward trend:

  • Automotive Components: Imports of motor vehicles and their parts rose sharply, underscoring the deep ties between U.S. and Mexican automotive manufacturing.
  • Industrial Valves: There was a notable surge in demand for valves, with a significant percentage increase compared to the previous year.
  • Electric Batteries: The appetite for electric batteries also saw substantial growth, likely driven by expansion in Mexico’s manufacturing and technology sectors.

Overall, while the percentage increases vary by product, the broader trajectory points to consistent growth in U.S. exports to Mexico—especially in areas vital to manufacturing, transportation, and energy. This evolving import landscape further solidifies the United States’ position as a crucial trading partner for Mexico.

How Export Potential is Estimated

Determining the export potential for specific products and destinations—like between Mexico and the United States—relies on sophisticated economic models that take into account a mix of product similarities, geographic patterns, and trade data.

Typically, analysts use what's known as a “gravity model of trade,” which looks at the economic size of the two countries (think: GDP, population, purchasing power) and the distance between them, both literally and figuratively. This model is adapted using historical trade flows, matching how goods such as automobiles, electronics, or agricultural produce have performed between the US and Mexico in the past.

Additional layers are added by comparing how closely related certain products are and examining which goods are already traded successfully by similar economies. This approach helps pinpoint which industries or items have untapped potential.

For example, if US medical equipment producers have found a strong market in Canada or Chile—countries with similar regulatory environments and purchasing behavior—there may also be higher potential for those products in Mexico. Likewise, if Mexican automotive parts are popular in the US and abroad, analysts will flag this industry as ripe for further growth.

By combining past performance, industry trends, and market compatibility, experts can more reliably forecast which products are poised for export growth between these two important trade partners.

Key Drivers of Growth in Mexico’s Exports to the US

Recent data highlights several product categories fueling the year-on-year expansion of Mexico’s exports to the United States. Notably, computers saw a substantial increase, contributing significantly to overall export growth. Office machine parts also made a remarkable surge, reflecting heightened demand in the technology and business equipment sectors. Additionally, the automotive industry remained strong, with delivery trucks representing an important area of export growth.

These trends underscore Mexico’s evolving role as a manufacturing and technology hub, supplying a diverse array of goods to meet the needs of US industries and consumers.

Exploring Trade Data by Region and Product

To gain deeper insights into trade between Mexico and the United States, you can examine the data by specific regions within each country or by particular product categories.

  • Regional View: Select a region—such as a Mexican state or a U.S. state—to see how that area contributes to overall trade flows. This perspective highlights local industries driving exports and imports, uncovering regional strengths and specializations.
  • Product Category: Filter the data by product categories like automotive, agriculture, electronics, or medical devices. This allows you to track trends over time, revealing which sectors are experiencing growth or facing challenges in the binational trade relationship.

Interactive charts and tables can further help you visualize changes by allowing you to choose different dates, regions, or products. By zooming in on specific areas or sectors, you’ll discover the evolving dynamics of cross-border commerce and spot emerging opportunities for business and investment.

Breakdown of Import Shipments from Mexico to the United States

When examining shipments from Mexico to the United States, the data can be organized in a few key ways to reveal trade patterns and help businesses identify opportunities.

  • By Product: Imports from Mexico include a diverse array of products. Key categories include automotive goods (such as cars and auto parts), electronics, agricultural products, machinery, and petroleum products. Each of these sectors represents a significant share of cross-border trade, reflecting the complementary strengths of both economies.
  • By Company: The landscape is also shaped by the top importers, which range from major automotive manufacturers and electronics giants to retailers and distributors handling agricultural or consumer goods. This company-level view highlights which sectors are most active and illustrates the flow of supply chains between the two countries.
  • By Destination State: Finally, shipments are distributed across the United States, with states like Texas, California, Michigan, and Illinois often receiving the highest volumes. These locations serve as key hubs for automotive assembly, electronics manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics, underscoring the regional dynamics of U.S.-Mexico trade.

Through this lens, you can see not only what goods are moving across the border but also which businesses and regions are most heavily involved in this dynamic trading relationship.

What is Digital Trade Between Mexico and the United States?

Digital trade between Mexico and the United States refers to the exchange of goods and services that are delivered digitally, rather than physically crossing a border. This includes a broad range of transactions like downloading software, streaming entertainment content, subscribing to cloud-based services, purchasing online advertising, or paying fees for digital platforms—think Netflix subscriptions, Spotify downloads, or purchasing advertising space on Facebook and Google.

Unlike traditional exports, these digital products and services often don’t have a physical form, but their impact on commerce is significant. Digital trade covers:

  • Pure Digital Goods: Items like e-books, movies, music, and video games delivered entirely online.
  • Digital Services: Cloud hosting, software-as-a-service (SaaS), data analytics, and remote IT support.
  • Platform and Intermediation Fees: Charges for listing services, online marketplaces, or app downloads.

Measuring Digital Trade

Measuring digital trade can be more complex than tracking trucks at the border. Analysts estimate digital trade flows through corporate revenue data, looking at where sales are booked and which subsidiaries or headquarters recognize the revenue. For instance, when a Mexican customer purchases a U.S. company’s online service, the value of that transaction is counted as a U.S. export of digital products to Mexico—regardless of where the servers sit or how the money moves.

Estimates often aggregate revenue from digital transactions, separating the economic benefit recognized by the parent company in the U.S. or attributed to a Mexican branch or local office. This approach gives a clearer sense of how digital commerce is driving cross-border trade and economic integration.

Digital trade’s significance continues to grow, reshaping how both countries interact in today’s global economy.

Defining Digital Products and Services in International Trade

In the context of international trade, digital products and services refer to any goods or services that are delivered electronically rather than physically. This includes everything from streaming digital content—like movies and music—to downloading software, e-books, or video games from providers such as Netflix, Spotify, or PlayStation Network, especially when these transactions cross national borders.

Digital trade also covers automated online services, such as cloud computing, web hosting, or online consulting, as well as the fees charged for digital intermediation (think booking an accommodation through Airbnb or running ads on platforms like Facebook or Google). What sets these apart is that no physical product changes hands; instead, the entire process—from purchase to delivery—occurs digitally.

These digital exports and imports have become a crucial part of global commerce, shaping how businesses and consumers interact across countries. As technology advances, digital trade continues to expand, connecting markets and generating new opportunities in global supply chains.

Challenges faced by US Exporters in Mexico

Venturing into the Mexican market presents US exporters with many challenges, ranging from regulatory hurdles to logistical complexities and cultural differences.

  1. US exporters must navigate Mexico's complex regulatory landscape, demanding meticulous attention to compliance with customs procedures, documentation requirements, and product standards.

  2. Navigating tariffs and trade barriers poses ongoing challenges, impacting export costs and the competitiveness of US products in the Mexican market.

  3. Language and cultural disparities complicate communication and relationship-building efforts, underscoring the importance of cultural sensitivity and effective communication strategies.

  4. Infrastructure deficiencies, such as congested ports and inadequate transportation networks, contribute to delays and increased shipping costs, affecting the timely delivery of goods.

  5. Political and economic uncertainties and concerns about intellectual property protection and corruption add complexity to the business environment, necessitating robust risk management strategies.

  6. Market access restrictions, competition from local producers, and supply chain disruptions present formidable obstacles for US exporters, requiring resilient supply chain strategies and adaptability to regulatory changes. 

Successfully navigating these challenges demands a comprehensive approach, including regulatory compliance, cultural understanding, logistical efficiency, and risk management strategies, to succeed in the dynamic Mexican market.

Import regulations, trade data analysis, considerations for foreign investment, and understanding trade agreements like the USMCA, which entered into force, are vital elements for US exporters to thrive in the Mexican market.

Analyzing Trade Data to Forecast Future Flows

Estimating future trade flows between Mexico and the United States involves more than tracking current exports and imports—it's a nuanced process that blends data analysis with an understanding of product relationships and global trends.

A widely used approach is to apply models that assess not just the volume but also the types and destinations of traded goods. Analysts often look at patterns in product similarity (for example, how exporting vehicle parts might link to exporting finished automobiles) and market compatibility between the two countries. These models factor in product affinities, logistical routes, and demand trends to gain a fuller picture of potential trade growth.

In practice, this means:

  • Identifying Related Products: By examining which products tend to be exported together, analysts can spot emerging opportunities. For instance, a rise in electronics exports could signal future increases in component or software trade.
  • Geographic and Sector Similarity: Understanding regional strengths and matching them with industrial needs—such as pairing Mexico’s manufacturing hubs with U.S. consumer markets—helps forecast where trade relationships can deepen.
  • Gravity Model Insights: Economists utilize advanced versions of the gravity model, which consider both economic size and proximity, to predict the direction and magnitude of trade flows with greater accuracy. This method allows for estimating how changes (like tariffs or trade agreements) might shift trade patterns.

Using these layered analyses, businesses and policymakers can not only interpret historical data but also make informed projections, shaping strategies for investment, supply chain adjustments, and partnership development.

How have exports benefited Mexico's economy?

Mexico's economy has seen significant benefits from its robust export sector. The allure of Mexico's economic landscape is becoming increasingly attractive to numerous businesses worldwide, prompting them to relocate their operations to the country. This trend ensures that Mexico's export-driven gains are sustainable over the long term.

Key factors contributing to the economy include:

1. Natural Resource Wealth

Mexico's rich deposits of natural resources have been instrumental in attracting industries reliant on these materials, facilitating a surge in export activities.

2. Developed Infrastructure

With a well-established infrastructure in place, Mexico supports efficient production and distribution processes, enhancing its appeal as an export hub.

3. Extensive Trade Agreements

Mexico's strategic trade relationships span globally, reducing barriers and increasing access to international markets. This network of agreements has dramatically expanded the reach of Mexico's exports, bolstering economic growth through increased trade volumes.

Future Outlook for US Exports to Mexico: Seizing Opportunities Ahead

Looking ahead, US agricultural exports, including corn, play a significant role in US-Mexico trade. By embracing effective strategies, US exporters can leverage the close cultural and economic ties between the two nations. 

To seize the full potential of this trade opportunity, businesses must act decisively and implement these strategies to navigate the evolving landscape of US-Mexico trade and investment provisions and business services.

Discover how Visigistics can optimize your trade operations, two-way trade, and export strategies. Visit our website and contact us today for more information!

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main agricultural exports from the United States?

The agricultural exports from the United States encompass a variety of products, including grains, beef, pork, dairy, fruit, and vegetables.

How do trade agreements such as NAFTA and USMCA impact exports?

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) have played critical roles in facilitating trade. These agreements have reduced barriers and tariffs, enabling a smoother flow of goods between the two countries.

What is the significance of the strong economic ties between the US and Mexico?

The deep economic ties between the two partner countries make the latter a natural market for American exports. This strong economic relationship is founded on a history of two-way trade in goods and services that benefits both nations.

How does trade directly and indirectly support both the US and Mexico?

Trade directly and indirectly supports both countries' jobs, economic growth, and innovation. This bilateral relationship strengthens industries in various sectors.

What position does Mexico hold in terms of US export destinations?

Mexico is the US's first or second largest export market. The geographic proximity, shared borders, and trade relations make Mexico a crucial partner for the US.

How does the United States support trade relations with Mexico?

The office of the United States Trade Representative actively works to enhance trade relations with Mexico and Canada by negotiating agreements that benefit American businesses and consumers. These efforts aim to promote fair and reciprocal trade practices.

What role does the USDA play in promoting US agricultural exports?

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service is a critical player in promoting and facilitating exports and imports of agricultural products.